The Australian Government released its 2026 Intergenerational Report on 21 September 2026.
The Intergenerational Report, or IGR, is a long-term economic and fiscal report produced by the Australian Treasury. It examines how changes in population, workforce participation, productivity and government spending could affect Australia over the following 40 years.
It is not a property-market forecast and does not predict future house prices. However, the latest report identifies several long-term trends that should matter to anyone buying a home or investment property in Brisbane or on the Gold Coast.
Australia’s population is becoming larger, older and more concentrated in major cities. These changes will affect how many homes we need and the types of properties people want to own and occupy.
Australia will keep growing but more slowly
Australia’s population is projected to increase from 28 million in 2025-26 to 39.3 million by 2065-66.
Population growth is expected to average 0.9% a year over the next 40 years, down from 1.4% over the previous 40. The main reason is a falling birth rate. Australia’s fertility rate is projected to decline to 1.34 children per woman, while deaths are expected to exceed births by the 2060s.
Migration will therefore remain an important source of population and workforce growth. Because overseas migrants tend to settle in major cities, Treasury expects capital-city populations to grow more than twice as quickly as the rest of Australia.
This should support long-term housing demand in Brisbane. However, the Gold Coast also has a strong growth outlook and should not be treated like a typical regional market.
Brisbane and the Gold Coast are both projected to grow strongly
The Queensland Government’s regional population projections show Greater Brisbane growing from approximately 2.57 million residents in 2021 to 3.81 million by 2046. That represents an increase of around 1.24 million people.
Growth will not be evenly distributed. Ipswich, Logan-Beaudesert and Moreton Bay North are projected to record some of the largest increases.
Brisbane’s established inner and middle suburbs will generally grow more slowly because they have less available land and fewer opportunities to add large volumes of housing. This constrained supply can still support competition for desirable homes.
The Gold Coast is projected to grow from approximately 649,500 residents in 2021 to 975,000 by 2046. This would make it the fastest-growing major region outside Greater Brisbane in Queensland.
These projections support continued housing demand across South East Queensland. But population growth alone does not determine property performance.
A fast-growing outer suburb may also add thousands of new houses. Buyers in these areas can have plenty of competing stock from which to choose. An established suburb may record slower population growth but experience stronger competition for the limited number of suitable homes available.
For property buyers, the more important question is not simply:
How quickly is the population growing?
It is:
How does future demand compare with the supply of desirable property?
This is one reason local knowledge matters. Buyers moving to Brisbane need to understand the differences between established suburbs, redevelopment areas and outer growth corridors, not simply the headline population numbers.
Slower population growth will not necessarily mean weaker housing demand
Australia is likely to need more dwellings per person in the future.
Average household sizes have been declining due to delayed family formation, smaller families, relationship changes and population ageing. More people are living alone, while older Australians are remaining independent for longer.
This means a population of 100,000 people may require more homes than the same-sized population did previously.
Treasury identifies housing supply as the most important factor in improving affordability. Australia’s housing supply has failed to keep pace with demand, while the productivity of residential construction has fallen significantly.
The report states that Australia now produces approximately half as many dwellings for every hour worked in housing construction as it did 30 years ago.
Unless construction capacity and planning processes improve substantially, demand is likely to continue running ahead of the supply of suitable housing in many desirable areas.
Australia is getting older
Australia’s median age is projected to rise from 38.6 years to around 45 by the early 2060s.
The number of Australians aged 65 and over will almost double. The population aged 85 and over is expected to triple, increasing from approximately 625,000 people today to 1.9 million by 2065-66.
This will have a significant effect on housing demand.
Many older Australians will want to remain in their homes for as long as possible. Government policy is also shifting more aged-care support towards the home rather than institutional settings.
At the same time, some older owners will want to move from large or difficult-to-maintain properties into smaller homes close to services. The challenge is that many suburbs have a limited supply of appropriate downsizer housing.
A large home on a steep block may no longer suit an older owner. But the available alternatives may involve unsuitable stairs, poor accessibility, high body-corporate fees or moving away from an established community.
The changing homes Australians will need
Demographic change will affect which properties are most in demand.
Homes likely to appeal to a broader range of future buyers include:
- single-level homes or properties with minimal stairs;
- low-maintenance houses, townhouses and villas;
- apartments with lifts, secure parking and sensible body-corporate costs;
- homes close to shops, health services and public transport;
- flexible floor plans that can accommodate working from home, visiting family or a carer;
- properties suitable for multigenerational or dual living;
- homes that are energy-efficient and affordable to operate; and
- properties with manageable exposure to flooding, storms and other environmental risks.
This does not mean every villa, townhouse or apartment will perform well.
Design still matters. A townhouse with a bedroom and bathroom on the ground floor may suit downsizers, couples, small families and tenants. A similar property dominated by narrow staircases may appeal to a much smaller market.
An apartment with good natural light, a practical layout, lift access and moderate ongoing costs may have broad appeal. A newer apartment with extensive facilities and high body-corporate fees may be less attractive to cost-conscious owners and retirees.
Detached houses will remain highly desirable, particularly in established suburbs where land is scarce. However, the growing number of smaller and older households should also support demand for well-designed alternatives to the traditional family home.
What this could mean for capital growth
Demographic trends can support capital growth, but only when growing demand meets limited suitable supply.
A property is unlikely to perform well simply because it sits within a growing suburb. Buyers also need to consider:
- how much competing housing can be built;
- whether future supply will be substantially similar;
- who is likely to buy or rent the property in ten or twenty years;
- whether the layout can accommodate changing household needs;
- whether ongoing ownership costs will remain manageable;
- whether the area has the infrastructure required to support its growth; and
- whether environmental or insurance risks could restrict the future buyer pool.
The properties that benefit most may not necessarily be the largest or newest. They may be the homes that best match the needs of smaller and older households, particularly in locations where suitable alternatives are difficult to create.
This is especially relevant for Brisbane property investors. A property with broad owner-occupier appeal will usually have more potential future buyers than one designed for a narrow investor market.
Climate and insurance risks will become more important
The Intergenerational Report warns that increasingly frequent and severe natural disasters will place further pressure on insurance affordability.
This has direct relevance to Brisbane and the Gold Coast.
Brisbane buyers need to consider river flooding, creek flooding, overland flow and local drainage. Gold Coast buyers may also need to assess coastal exposure, storm risk and the rising insurance costs faced by some apartment buildings.
It is important to distinguish between a property being technically insurable and the insurance remaining affordable.
Over time, properties with lower environmental risk and more affordable insurance may appeal to a wider pool of buyers. This may become an increasingly important influence on resale demand and capital growth.
Our broader guide to how a buyer’s agent assists with property research and due diligence explains some of the checks we complete before recommending a property.
Energy efficiency will influence ownership costs
Treasury estimates that a representative household electrifying its home and vehicles and installing solar and a battery could reduce annual energy expenditure by approximately $4,300 over the longer term.
Energy efficiency is therefore likely to become more important to both owner-occupiers and tenants.
Buyers may increasingly value:
- suitable rooftop space for solar;
- modern and compliant solar systems;
- battery storage or the ability to install it;
- efficient electric hot water and cooking;
- effective insulation and shading;
- energy-efficient cooling; and
- provision for EV charging.
Home ownership will remain important to retirement security
One of the report’s most striking findings is the difference between homeowners and renters in retirement.
Housing costs now account for approximately 40% of expenditure among retired private renters. The report also cites research showing that only 11% of retired homeowners live in poverty, compared with 67% of retirees renting privately.
For older buyers, the focus may be on finding a property that remains practical as their mobility and care needs change.
What the report means for property investors
The report argues that negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount have made residential property more attractive to investors. It also refers to the Government’s 2026 reforms intended to reduce investor tax concessions and increase home ownership.
The report does not forecast what these reforms will do to property prices, rents or investment returns.
We have previously examined how the 2026 Federal Budget changed the property conversation for homeowners and investors.
For investors, the main lesson is that a property should stand up on its fundamentals rather than depend on its tax treatment.
Those fundamentals include:
- sustainable tenant demand;
- limited competing supply;
- an appropriate purchase price;
- manageable maintenance and insurance costs;
- a practical layout;
- broad owner-occupier appeal; and
- a clear reason why future buyers or tenants will prefer it to other available properties.
Tax benefits may support an investment decision, but they should not create one.
How Your Property Hound interprets the report
At Your Property Hound, we see these projections as a reason to consider future buyers and tenants, not only the current market.
Brisbane and the Gold Coast should continue to benefit from substantial population growth. Smaller households and an ageing population are also likely to increase demand for well-located, low-maintenance and adaptable homes.
But these trends do not make every suburb or property a good purchase.
You need to assess population growth alongside housing supply, infrastructure, affordability, and the characteristics of the individual property. Environmental risks, insurance costs, construction quality and body-corporate expenses can all outweigh an otherwise promising location.
We favour properties with flexible layouts, broad owner-occupier appeal, manageable ownership costs and locations that should remain convenient as the population changes.
As a local Brisbane buyer’s agent and Gold Coast buyer’s agent, we assess these factors at both the suburb and individual-property level.
Our aim is to buy in a growing market and choose a property people will keep wanting and can afford to own for many years.
If you are considering buying a home or investment property in Brisbane or on the Gold Coast, you can contact Your Property Hound to discuss your requirements.
FAQs
Australia’s population is projected to increase from approximately 28 million in 2025–26 to 39.3 million by 2065–66. Growth is expected to average about 0.9% a year over the next 40 years, compared with 1.4% over the previous 40 years.
Queensland Government projections indicate that Greater Brisbane could grow from approximately 2.57 million residents in 2021 to 3.81 million by 2046. That is an increase of around 1.24 million people, or approximately 48%.
The Gold Coast is projected to grow from approximately 649,500 residents in 2021 to 975,000 by 2046. This represents an increase of about 325,500 people, or approximately 50%.
No. Population growth can increase demand for housing, but it does not automatically produce capital growth. Prices are influenced by the relationship between demand and suitable supply, as well as affordability, credit conditions, employment, infrastructure and buyer preferences.
A fast-growing outer suburb may add thousands of residents while also producing thousands of similar new homes. Buyers may therefore have plenty of competing stock. An established suburb may grow more slowly but experience stronger competition for a limited number of desirable properties.
No. Population growth will be distributed unevenly, and its property effects will differ between established suburbs, redevelopment areas and outer growth corridors.
Within Greater Brisbane, Ipswich, Logan–Beaudesert and Moreton Bay North are projected to record some of the largest population increases. These areas should require substantial new housing, but they may also have significant competing supply.
Yes. New supply is essential for affordability, but a large pipeline of substantially similar properties can limit scarcity and give future buyers more alternatives. This is particularly relevant in greenfield estates, high-density development precincts and investor-oriented projects.
Australia’s ageing population and declining average household size should increase demand for homes that are well located, practical, adaptable and affordable to maintain. More people are living alone, families are becoming smaller and older Australians are remaining independent for longer.
Potentially well-positioned properties include single-level homes; low-maintenance houses, villas and townhouses; apartments with lifts, secure parking and sensible body-corporate costs; and homes close to shops, healthcare and public transport. Flexible layouts that can accommodate working from home, visiting family, a carer or multigenerational living may also appeal to a wider market.
The report provides a long-term demographic framework rather than an investment forecast. It suggests continued housing demand in major cities, but also highlights slower population growth, smaller households, an ageing population, housing-supply constraints, climate risk and changing ownership costs.
For investors, the practical lesson is to choose a property that stands up on its fundamentals: sustainable tenant demand, limited competing supply, an appropriate purchase price, manageable maintenance and insurance costs, a practical layout and broad owner-occupier appeal.
Properties capable of serving several different buyer and tenant groups may be best placed to benefit. Examples include a townhouse with a ground-floor bedroom and bathroom, a low-maintenance villa close to services, or an apartment with lift access, good natural light, a practical layout and moderate ongoing costs.
Flexible homes may appeal to downsizers, couples, smaller families, tenants, people working from home and households accommodating relatives or carers. Energy-efficient homes with manageable insurance and maintenance costs may also become increasingly attractive.
There is no single winning property type. Your Property Hound favours properties with broad owner-occupier appeal and features that are difficult to reproduce, rather than buying solely because a dwelling fits a demographic label.
The report identifies a substantial divide between homeowners and private renters in retirement. Housing costs account for approximately 40% of expenditure among retired private renters. It also cites research reporting poverty among 11% of retired homeowners, compared with 67% of retirees renting privately.
They can contribute. Many older owners may be willing to leave a large or difficult-to-maintain home but cannot find a suitable alternative within their existing community. Common barriers include stairs, poor accessibility, high body-corporate fees, limited storage and a lack of appropriate homes close to services.
When suitable options are scarce, older households may remain in larger homes for longer. This can reduce the number of established family homes returning to the market, even when those homes are no longer an ideal fit for their occupants.
More well-designed downsizer housing may improve the use of existing housing stock, but it needs to be built in the right locations and remain affordable to buy and own. Simply adding small dwellings will not solve the problem if their design, access or ongoing costs do not suit older buyers.